INDEX ON CENSORSHIP | VOL.53 | NO.3
The Index
ELECTION WATCH
The bumper election year continues. Here’s who is heading to the polls next
LEFT TO RIGHT: Donald Trump - US; Salva Kiir Mayardit - South Sudan; Umaro Embalo Guinea-Bissau
1. US presidential election
5 NOVEMBER 2024
In November, the US electorate will head to the polls to elect either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump as the country’s new leader. Free expression issues in the US election have been well documented, with perhaps the most pressing concern being the level of disinformation spread during the campaign period, particularly online. Social media platform X has been the main offender, with questions being raised over the validity of the role played by its billionaire owner Elon Musk. Musk publicly endorsed Trump and has been accused of manipulating the platform’s content. On one occasion he shared an AI-made video of Harris without clarifying that it was fake, which was a violation of the platform’s own terms and conditions. Concerns were heightened when Trump declared that the US electorate “won’t have to vote any more” if he was elected, sparking debate over his commitment to the democratic process. Further obstacles to free speech include electoral practices such as gerrymandering and implementing stricter voter ID laws which have been accused of being racially discriminatory.
2. South Sudan general election
22 DECEMBER 2024
The last general election held in South Sudan before it gained independence took place in 2010. An election scheduled for 2015 was repeatedly postponed after an alleged coup d’état in 2013 and an ensuing civil war.
A general election is now finally expected to take place on 22 December 2024 yet concerns have been raised that the country is not ready for elections. One United Nations security official warned that there is “potential for violence with disastrous consequences” if the election is not handled carefully.
The ongoing conflict in the state will hinder the population’s participation in an election, and persistent human rights violations suggest there is no possibility of people being able to vote freely and fairly. Even if the election is to finally go ahead, South Sudan’s violent and unstable environment will prevent the result from being credible.
3. Guinea-Bissau parliamentary election
24 NOVEMBER 2024
Clashes between two army factions in Guinea-Bissau in December 2023 left two people dead and caused a political crisis after President Umaro Embaló labelled it an attempted coup and dissolved the opposition-led parliament just six months after it had been elected. Security forces carried out the order with excessive force, using tear gas to block lawmakers from accessing the chamber. The original fighting was sparked by the arrest of two cabinet ministers from the African Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cabo Verde (PAIGC) on corruption charges; PAIGC has described the president’s response as unconstitutional. According to Freedom House, voters in Guinea-Bissau have a lack of free choice in the country’s elections as politicians continue to be influenced by corruption, while organised crime has created an unstable political environment which significantly hinders democracy and freedom of expression.
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