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Contents THEWORLDTODAY.ORG DECEMBER 2007 VOLUME 63 NUMBER 12 PAGE 3 THE WORLD TODAY, founded in 1945, is published by The Royal Institute of International Affairs. The Institute is precluded by its Royal Charter from expressing an opinion of its own on any aspect of international affairs. Any views expressed in this publication are, therefore, those of the contributors. Copyright is normally owned by The Royal Institute of International Affairs. Articles and letters should be sent to: The Editor, The World Today, Chatham House, 10 St James’s Square, London SW1Y 4LE. +44 (0) 20 7957 5712 email: wt@chathamhouse.org.uk gwalker@chathamhouse.org.uk Advertising and subscription enquiries: +44 (0) 20 7957 5712 PAGE 12 THE KURDISH QUESTION PAWTECH PROFILE/ HU/ SXC. MAGUE/ EMMANUEL_S PHOTOS/ COM/ CKR. FLI PAGE 4 BALI CLIMATE CONFRENCE: FORESTS 4 SAPPHIRE MINING - MADAGASCAR : Taking the Shine Off Mat Heywood and Lihee Avidan 6 SOMALIA AND ETHIOPIA: Caught in a Quagmire Harun Hassan and Leslie Lefkow 8 FOOD PRODUCTION IN MALAWI: Wheel of Fortune Michael Keating with Laura Collins 11 REVIEW - PORTRAITS FROM ANGOLA: Painting Peace Alex Vines 12 THE KURDISH QUESTION:Raising the Stakes Robert Lowe and Gareth Stansfield 15 ARMS CONTROL:Missile Madness Jane Sharp 18 PAKISTAN:Luck Running Out? Farzana Shaikh 20PRIVATE SECURITY COMPANIES IN IRAQ:Mercenaries, Misfits or Misunderstood? Alastair Campbell 23 SOUTH AFRICA: ANC LEADERSHIP:Party or the People? William Gumede 26BALI CLIMATE CONFERENCE - FORESTS:Trees Count Joy Hyvarinen and Jade Saunders Readers requiring copies of articles published in this magazine must obtain permission to copy from the Copyright Licensing Agency, 5 Dryden Street, London WC2E 9NW. The CLA is authorised to grant permission to copy in both the UK and the US. Permission to reprint or republish in any form must be sought from the Editor: email: wt@chathamhouse.org.uk Back copies are available from 1990. Enquiries: +44 (0) 20 7957 5712 The World Today is indexed by ABC Pol Sci, IPSA and PAIS and available on microfilm from National Archive Publishing Company, www.napubco.com Electronic versions are also available from ProQuest Information and Learning, www.proquest.com Charity Reg. No 208223 ISSN 0043-9134. Printed by Warners Midlands Plc, The Maltings, Manor Lane, Bourne, Lincolnshire PE10 9PH. EDITOR Graham Walker ASSISTANT EDITOR Alison Couldridge DESIGNER Martin Colyer DATABASEMichael Farrell INTERNSerena Stone Subscribe I wish to take out an annual subscription (11 monthly issues – August/September combined) UNITED KINGDOM: INSTITUTIONAL £90 INDIVIDUAL £35 STUDENT £28 US & CANADA: INSTITUTIONAL US$160 INDIVIDUAL US$65 STUDENT US$50 EUROPE/ELSEWHERE: INSTITUTIONAL £95 INDIVIDUAL £38 STUDENT £30 Name Address Country Tel/Email Postcode Please make cheque payable to THEWORLD TODAY and send to: The World Today, Chatham House, 10 St James’s Square, London SW1Y 4LE or fax to: +44 (0) 20 7957 5710 Amex/Visa/Mastercard (delete as appropriate) Card number: Expires: LIHEE AVIDAN

Contents THEWORLDTODAY.ORG DECEMBER 2007

VOLUME 63 NUMBER 12

PAGE 3

THE WORLD TODAY, founded in 1945, is published by The Royal Institute of International Affairs. The Institute is precluded by its Royal Charter from expressing an opinion of its own on any aspect of international affairs. Any views expressed in this publication are, therefore, those of the contributors. Copyright is normally owned by The Royal Institute of International Affairs.

Articles and letters should be sent to: The Editor, The World Today, Chatham House, 10 St James’s Square, London SW1Y 4LE. +44 (0) 20 7957 5712 email: wt@chathamhouse.org.uk gwalker@chathamhouse.org.uk Advertising and subscription enquiries: +44 (0) 20 7957 5712

PAGE 12 THE KURDISH QUESTION

PAWTECH

PROFILE/

HU/

SXC.

MAGUE/

EMMANUEL_S

PHOTOS/

COM/

CKR.

FLI

PAGE 4 BALI CLIMATE CONFRENCE: FORESTS

4 SAPPHIRE MINING - MADAGASCAR : Taking the Shine Off Mat Heywood and Lihee Avidan

6 SOMALIA AND ETHIOPIA: Caught in a Quagmire Harun Hassan and Leslie Lefkow

8 FOOD PRODUCTION IN MALAWI: Wheel of Fortune Michael Keating with Laura Collins

11 REVIEW - PORTRAITS FROM ANGOLA: Painting Peace Alex Vines

12 THE KURDISH QUESTION:Raising the Stakes Robert Lowe and Gareth Stansfield

15 ARMS CONTROL:Missile Madness Jane Sharp

18 PAKISTAN:Luck Running Out? Farzana Shaikh

20PRIVATE SECURITY COMPANIES IN IRAQ:Mercenaries, Misfits or Misunderstood? Alastair Campbell

23 SOUTH AFRICA: ANC LEADERSHIP:Party or the People? William Gumede

26BALI CLIMATE CONFERENCE - FORESTS:Trees Count Joy Hyvarinen and Jade Saunders

Readers requiring copies of articles published in this magazine must obtain permission to copy from the Copyright Licensing Agency, 5 Dryden Street, London WC2E 9NW. The

CLA is authorised to grant permission to copy in both the UK and the US. Permission to reprint or republish in any form must be sought from the Editor: email:

wt@chathamhouse.org.uk Back copies are available from 1990. Enquiries: +44 (0) 20 7957 5712 The World Today is indexed by ABC Pol Sci, IPSA and PAIS and available on microfilm from National Archive Publishing Company, www.napubco.com

Electronic versions are also available from ProQuest Information and Learning, www.proquest.com Charity Reg. No 208223 ISSN 0043-9134. Printed by Warners Midlands Plc, The Maltings, Manor Lane, Bourne, Lincolnshire PE10 9PH.

EDITOR Graham Walker

ASSISTANT EDITOR Alison Couldridge

DESIGNER Martin Colyer

DATABASEMichael Farrell

INTERNSerena Stone

Subscribe I wish to take out an annual subscription (11 monthly issues – August/September combined)

UNITED KINGDOM: INSTITUTIONAL £90 INDIVIDUAL £35 STUDENT £28

US & CANADA:

INSTITUTIONAL US$160 INDIVIDUAL US$65 STUDENT US$50

EUROPE/ELSEWHERE: INSTITUTIONAL £95 INDIVIDUAL £38 STUDENT £30

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Address

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Tel/Email

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Please make cheque payable to THEWORLD TODAY and send to: The World Today, Chatham House, 10 St James’s Square, London SW1Y 4LE or fax to: +44 (0) 20 7957 5710

Amex/Visa/Mastercard (delete as appropriate)

Card number:

Expires:

LIHEE AVIDAN

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