Skip to main content
Read page text
page 26
dvertising Feature Solar power turns up the heat on oil during the next decade solar power could compete on price and performance against the traditional energy sources.the key to its sustained success will be developing ways OFSTORING the sun’s energY - some answers are already inDEVELOPMENT Solar power already seems old hat. The dominant narrative is that we are in the cheap mass production phase of an established technology, that panel production will be dominated by China, while trade disputes will continue to make the headlines. Think again: radical technology may be about to increase sunlight conversion efficiency from theoretical limits of around 33 per cent to upwards of 87 per cent. Such an increase suggests that over the next decade or so, solar power will be able to compete with traditional forms of energy on price and performance at peak periods. Yet solar alone will not be sufficient to meet growing power demand. The future will require diverse integrated systems combining multiple technologies, such as prototype systems in Abu Dhabi’s Masdar City, or closer at home with “EcoIsland” on the Isle of Wight illustrate. This heterogeneous energy future will rely on the convergence of recent technology advances in wind, wave, hydrogen, super capacitors and other diverse forms of energy capture and storage. Yet this is not simply a technology story: systems designers and integrators in both the public and private sectors must rise to the challenge of delivering not just efficiency, but also resilience. Beyond oil Within ten years, we may well begin to see cheap, abundant, universal, low carbon power emerge in everything from microdevices to major power stations. Think of the possible implications. The power structures of ‘big oil’ replaced not by ‘peak oil’, but perhaps post oil, or rather a world in which oil is no longer so dominant? It is hard to imagine a future where civilisation remains dependent on fossil fuels – continually wrestling with their environmental impact and ultimately finite supply. Progress with solar power has been slower than many may have expected, but we may have reached a tipping point. Based on recent predictions, installations of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are on course to increase 50-fold by 2020 compared with 2005. Global installed capacity now exceeds 65 gigawatts (GW). By 2020 this is predicted to reach 600 GW. They will also be cheaper. The price of PV modules is falling and they are already 75 per cent lower in price than they were three years ago. China’s low-cost production has given the world a taste of the potential of cheap solar systems. The second major driver of the step change is revolutionary new technologies. Solar cell technology patent activities have grown substantially, providing us with insight into disruption ahead. Advances in next generation Solar PV technologies such as black silicon, organic PV solar cells and multi-junction cells bring the promise of increased efficiency and/or further decreases in costs of production. Then there is also quantum dot technology, which promises to boost energy conversion efficiency and cut manufacturing costs. The increasing number of multi-junction solar cells patents fpaten t docu men t s Numbero 300 250 200 150 100 50 265 229 228 116 138 66 65 71 63 82 104 26 20 29 23 30 32 24 29 29 15 23 30 18 24 18 25 23 39 26 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 fpatent document s lativenumbe ro Cumu 0 Pre-1982 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ource: Cambridge IP Research 2012 0
page 27
Of these technologies, the one with the most significant near-term impact is multi-junction solar cells. Even so, solar will not deliver all the answers on its own. After all, the sun only shines for part of the day in many parts of the world and cloud cover can reduce energy capture levels for weeks. Solar’s silver bullet? Advanced energy storage technology has the potential to transform not just solar, but all intermittent renewable power sources. It will enable integration with the modern grid, support greater use in remote “Solar power will not be able to deliver all of the answers on its own” and off-grid areas and balance short-term fluctuations in voltage. Innovation across the energy storage sector is gaining momentum. Compressed air energy storage, for instance, has the potential to be the lowest-cost mass energy store available. Hydrogen storage, which involves compressed hydrogen gas in high-pressure tanks, is emerging as a central technology in a number of national energy strategies, while potentially revolutionary new types of batteries, some using graphene convert thermal energy of ions into electricity. Advances in energy storage not only promise to support the wider use of renewable energy sources, but also create new business models – allowing renewables to be ‘banked’ and delivered when demand, along with the price, rises. The widespread application of some of these technologies is still a long-term proposition. Yet molten salt, for instance, is already enabling utility level deployment of concentrated >

Page Text

View plaintext

dvertising Feature

Solar power turns up the heat on oil during the next decade solar power could compete on price and performance against the traditional energy sources.the key to its sustained success will be developing ways OFSTORING the sun’s energY - some answers are already inDEVELOPMENT

Solar power already seems old hat. The dominant narrative is that we are in the cheap mass production phase of an established technology, that panel production will be dominated by China, while trade disputes will continue to make the headlines.

Think again: radical technology may be about to increase sunlight conversion efficiency from theoretical limits of around 33 per cent to upwards of 87 per cent. Such an increase suggests that over the next decade or so, solar power will be able to compete with traditional forms of energy on price and performance at peak periods.

Yet solar alone will not be sufficient to meet growing power demand. The future will require diverse integrated systems combining multiple technologies, such as prototype systems in Abu Dhabi’s Masdar City, or closer at home with “EcoIsland” on the Isle of Wight illustrate.

This heterogeneous energy future will rely on the convergence of recent technology advances in wind, wave, hydrogen, super capacitors and other diverse forms of energy capture and storage.

Yet this is not simply a technology story: systems designers and integrators in both the public and private sectors must rise to the challenge of delivering not just efficiency, but also resilience.

Beyond oil Within ten years, we may well begin to see cheap, abundant, universal, low carbon power emerge in everything from microdevices to major power stations.

Think of the possible implications. The power structures of ‘big oil’ replaced not by ‘peak oil’, but perhaps post oil, or rather a world in which oil is no longer so dominant? It is hard to imagine a future where civilisation remains dependent on fossil fuels – continually wrestling with their environmental impact and ultimately finite supply.

Progress with solar power has been slower than many may have expected, but we may have reached a tipping point.

Based on recent predictions, installations of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are on course to increase 50-fold by 2020 compared with 2005. Global installed capacity now exceeds 65 gigawatts (GW). By 2020 this is predicted to reach 600 GW.

They will also be cheaper. The price of PV modules is falling and they are already 75 per cent lower in price than they were three years ago. China’s low-cost production has given the world a taste of the potential of cheap solar systems.

The second major driver of the step change is revolutionary new technologies.

Solar cell technology patent activities have grown substantially, providing us with insight into disruption ahead. Advances in next generation Solar PV technologies such as black silicon, organic PV solar cells and multi-junction cells bring the promise of increased efficiency and/or further decreases in costs of production. Then there is also quantum dot technology, which promises to boost energy conversion efficiency and cut manufacturing costs.

The increasing number of multi-junction solar cells patents fpaten t docu men t s

Numbero

300

250

200

150

100

50

265

229

228

116

138

66 65 71 63 82 104

26 20 29 23 30 32 24 29 29 15 23 30 18 24 18 25 23 39 26

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

fpatent document s lativenumbe ro

Cumu

0

Pre-1982

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

ource: Cambridge IP Research 2012

0

read next page

My Bookmarks

Buy this Book
Skip to main content