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A MODEST INHERITANCE ________ JAMES LOVELOCK _________ In the event o f a world catastrophe, future generations will need a book o f knowledge to guide them in rebuilding civilization. Pe r h a p s j u l i a n s i m o n s is r ig h t to th ink all will be well for th e next few decades. H e sees the g row th o f resources sufficient to meet d em and . H e th inks it p ro b ab le th a t th e fu tu re a i r will be w a rm e r and still polluted bu t not enough to cause discom fort. T h e re may be more o f us in some places. T h e r e will be more cars b u t they will be sm a lle r and more efficient. H e expects no worse th a n this for a t least th e next tw en ty years. O th e r s , like P au l E h rlich , see a m uch gloom ier fu tu re . M o s t o f us believe in the m axim “ Business as u su a l” an d so we behave like the in h a b i ta n ts o f Tokyo and Los Angeles. W e p u t th oughts ab o u t the e a r th quake a t th e back o f ou r m inds. We ac t in the hope th a t th e world will continue in to th e tw enty-first cen tu ry m uch as it is now. Few trav e lle rs from the N o rth would go to th e tro p ic a l South w ith ou t antim a la r ia l d ru g s , o r w ith ou t checking how the nearby local w a r was p rogressing. By com parison our jo u rn ey in to the fu tu re is am azingly unprepared. W here people know well the local d anger, as in Tokyo, they p rep a re for th e e a r th q u ak e to come. W hen the th re a ts a re global in scale we ignore them . Volcanoes, like T am b o u ra 1814 a n d Laki 1783, were m uch more powerful th a n was P in a tu bo o r K rakatoa. T h ey affected th e clim a te enough to cause fam ine, even when ou r num bers were only a te n th as m any as now. Should one o f these volcanoes stage a rep e a t perform ance, do we have now enough sto red food for tom o rrow ’s m u ltitu des? I f p a r t o f a Southern glacial ice sheet slid in to the sea, the level o f th e sea m ight rise by a metre all over the world. T h is event would ren d e r homeless millions o f those living in coastal cities. C itizen s would suddenly become refugees. Do we have the food a n d shelter needed when cities such as London, C a lc u t ta , M iam i and R o t te rd am become uninhabitable? We a re sensible and we do not agonize over these possible doom scenarios. We prefer to assum e th a t they will not h appen in ou r lifetim es. We take th em no more seriously th a n our fo refathers took the p ro sp ec t o f hell, b u t the th ought o f ap p e a r in g foolish still scares us. An old verse goes, “ T h ey th ieve and plot an d toil and p lod and go to church on Sunday. I t ’s tru e enough th a t some fear God bu t they all fear M rs G ru n d y .” In science we have ou r D rs G ru ndy also. T h ey a re all too eager to scorn any d e p a r tu re from th e perceived dogma. Scientists a n d science advisers a re afraid to adm i t th a t som e tim es they do not know w hat will happen. T h ey are cau tio u s ab o u t th e ir p red ic tio ns and do not care to speak in a way th a t m igh t th rea ten business as usual. T h is te ndency leaves us unp re p a re d for a c a ta s tro p h e such as a global event th a t was wholly unexpected a n d u n p r e d ic ted — som e th ing like th e ozone hole b u t m uch more serious. Som eth ing th a t could th row us in to a new d a rk age. We can neither p rep a re ag a in s t all possibilities, nor easily change our ways enough to s top b reeding and polluting. Those who believe in the p re c au tio n a ry principle would have us give up, or greatly decrease, bu rn in g fossil fuel. They w a rn th a t the carbon d io x id e b y -p ro duct o f th is energy source may sooner or la te r change, or even destabilize, the clim ate. Most o f us know in ou r hearts th a t these w arnings should be heeded but know not w hat to do ab o u t it. Few o f us will reduce our personal use o f fossil fuel energy to w arm , o r cool, our homes o r drive our cars. We suspect th a t we should not w a it to ac t until th e re is visible evidence o f malign clim a te change — by th en it m igh t be too la te to reverse the changes we have set in motion. We a re like the sm oker who enjoys a c ig arette and im agines giving up smoking when th e harm becomes tangible. M ost o f all, we hope for a good life in the im m ed ia te fu tu re and would ra th e r pu t aside u np le a san t thoughts o f doom to come. WE C A N N O T REGARD the fu tu re o f the civilized world in the sam e way as we see our personal futures. I t is careless to be cavalier about ou r own d ea th . I t is reckless to th ink o f civilizat io n ’s end in the sam e way. Even if a to le rab le fu tu re is p ro bable, it is still unwise to ignore the possibility of disaster. O n e th ing we can do to lessen the consequences o f ca ta s tro p h e is to write a guide-book for ou r survivors to help th em rebuild c iv iliz ation w ith out rep ea tin g too m any o f ou r mistakes. I have long th ought th a t a p ro per gift for ou r ch ild ren and g ran d ch ild ren is an accu ra te record o f all we know about the p resent and p a s t environm ent. Sandy and I enjoy walking on D a r t moor, m uch o f w h ich is featureless m oorland. O n such a la ndscape it is easy to get lost when it grows d a rk and the m ists come down. We usually avoid this m ish ap by m aking sure th a t always we know where we a re and w hat was the p a th we took. In some ways our jo u rn ey in to the fu tu re is like this. We c a n ’t see the way ahead or the p itfalls b u t it would help to know w hat is the s ta te now and how we got here. I t would help to have a guide-book w ritte n in c lear and sim ple words th a t any in te llig ent person could u n d e r s ta nd. No such book exists. For most o f us, w hat we know o f the E a r th comes from books and television p rogram m es th a t p resen t e i th e r the single-m inded view o f a specialist, or persuasion from a ta len ted lobbyist. We live in adversarial not thoughtful tim es and tend to hear only th e a rg um e n ts o f each o f the sp e c ia l- in te re s t g roups. Even when they know th a t they a re w rong they never adm i t it. T h ey all fight for the in te rests o f th e ir g ro up while claim ing to speak for hum ank in d . T h is is fine en te r ta inm en t ; bu t w h a t use would th e ir words be to th e survivors o f a fu tu re flood o r fam ine? W hen they read them in a book d raw n from the 1 6 R e s u r g e n c e N o . 181
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debris would they le a rn w hat went w rong an d why? W h a t help would be the t r a c t o f a G reen lobbyist, the press release o f a m u lt in a t io n a l power com pany, o r th e rep o r t o f a governm en ta l com m ittee? T o make th ings worse for our survivors, th e objective view o f science is nearly in com prehensible. Scientific p ap e r s and books a re so a rc an e th a t scientists can understan d only those o f th e ir own speciality. I d o u b t if th e re is anyone, a p a r t from these specialists, who can u nderstan d more th a n a few o f the papers p u b lished in Science o r Nature every week. Scan th e shelves o f a bookshop or a public lib ra ry for a book th a t clearly explains th e p re sen t condition and how it happened. You will not find it. T h e books th a t a re th e re a re about the evanescent th ings o f today. Well w r i tten , e n te r ta in in g o r in fo rm ative they may be, b u t alm ost all o f th em a re in the c u r r e n t context. T h ey take so m uch for g r an te d and forget how h a rd -w on was th e scientific knowledge th a t gave us the com fo rtab le a n d safe life we enjoy. We a re so ig no ran t of those in d iv id ual acts o f genius th a t estab l ish ed c iv iliz ation th a t we now give equal place on our book-shelves to t h e e x t r a v a g a n c e o f a s t r o l o g y , c reation ism and hom eopathy. Books on these subjects a t first en te r ta in ed us or t itilla te d ou r hypochondria. We now take them seriously and trea t them as if they were rep o r t in g facts. Im ag in e the survivors o f a failed c iv iliz ation. Im ag in e them try ing to cope w ith a cholera epidem ic using knowledge g a th e red from a ta t te re d book on a l te rn a t iv e medicine. Yet in the d eb r is such a book would be more likely to have survived a n d be readable th an a medical text. W h a t we need is a book o f knowledge w ritte n so well as to constitu te l i te ra tu re in its own right. Something for anyone in te rested in the s ta te o f the E a r th and o f ourselves — a m anual for living well and for survival. T h e q u a l i ty o f its w ritin g m ust be such th a t it would serve for p leasure, for devotional read in g , as a source o f facts and even as a p r im a ry school text. I t would range from sim ple th ings such as how to lig h t a fire, to ou r place in the Solar System a n d th e U n iverse. I t would be a p r im e r o f philosophy and science — it would provide a top down look a t the E a r th and ourselves. I t would explain th e n a tu r a l se lec tion o f all living th ings, and give the key facts o f medicine, in c lud ing the c ircu la tio n o f the blood and th e role o f the organs. T h e discovery th a t b ac te ria and ILLUSTRATIONBYANTHONYCOLBERT v iru ses cause infectious diseases is rela tiv e ly recent; im agine th e consequences if such knowledge were lost. In its tim e the Bible set the constra in ts for b eh av io u r and for health . We need a new book like the Bible th a t would serve in th e sam e way b u t acknow ledge science. I t would explain p ro p e rties like tem p e ra tu re , the m eaning o f th e ir scales o f m e asu rem en t and how to m easu re them . I t would list the periodic ta b le o f the elem ents. I t would give an account o f the a ir, the rocks an d th e oceans. I t would give schoolch i ld ren o f to day a p ro p e r u n d e r s ta n d ing o f ou r c iv ilization and o f the p la net it occupies. I t would inform th em a t an age w hen th e ir m inds were most receptive and give th em facts they would rem em b e r for a lifetime. I t would also be th e survival m a n u a l for ou r successors. A book th a t was readily available should d is a s te r happen. I t would help b r in g science back as p a r t o f our cu l tu re a n d be an in heritan ce. W h a t ever else m ay be w rong w ith science, it still p rovides th e best explanation we have o f th e m a te r ia l world. IT IS N O USE even th ink ing o f p re sen tin g such a book on m agnetic or optical m ed ia , o r indeed any kind o f m ed ium th a t needs a com pu te r and e lec tric ity to read it. W o rd s sto red in such a form a re as evanescent as the c h a t te r o f the I n te rn e t and would never survive a ca ta s tro phe. Not only is th e sto rag e m ed ium its e lf short-lived b u t its rea d in g d epends upon specific h a rd w a r e and the softw are. In this technology ra p id obsolescence is usual. M odern m ed ia a re less reliable for long-term sto rag e th a n is the spoken w ord. I t needs the su p p o r t o f a high technology th a t we can n o t take for g r an te d . W h a t we need is a book w ritte n on d u ra b le p ap e r w ith longla s tin g p r in t. I t m ust be clear, unb ia s sed, a c cu ra te an d up to d a te . M ost of all, we need to accept and to believe in it a t least as m uch as we d id , and p e rh a p s still do, in th e W orld Service o f th e BBC. In the d a rk ages o f ou r earlier h is to ry th e religious o rders in th e ir m onasteries carried th ro ugh the essence o f w h a t makes us civilized. M uch o f th is knowledge was in books and the monks took care o f th em and read th em as p a r t o f th e ir discipline. Sadly, we no longer have callings like this. T h e vast collection o f knowledge th a t is now availab le is more th an any one person could hold. C onsequently it is d iv id ed and subdivided in to subjects. E ach subject is th e province o f professionally em p loyed specialists. M ost are expert in th e ir own subject b u t ignora n t o f the o th e rs — few have a sense o f vocation. A p a r t from isolated in s t itu te s like the N a tio nal C en tre for A tm ospheric R esearch perched on a m oun ta in side in Colorado, th e re are no equivalents o f the monasteries. So who would g u a rd the book? A book of knowledge, w ritte n w ith au th o rity and as sp lendid a read as T y n d a le ’s bible, m ight need no guardians. I t would e a rn th e respect needed to place it in every home, school, lib ra ry and place o f worship. I t would th en be to h and w hatever h appened. # James Lovelock, CBE, FRS, is the author o f G a ia , th e P r a c t ic a l S c ie n c e o f P la n e ta r y M ed ic in e . R e s u r g e n c e N o . 181 1 7

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A MODEST INHERITANCE

________ JAMES LOVELOCK _________

In the event o f a world catastrophe, future generations will need a book o f knowledge to guide them in rebuilding civilization.

Pe r h a p s j u l i a n s i m o n s is r ig h t to th ink all will be well for th e next few decades. H e sees the g row th o f resources sufficient to meet d em and . H e th inks it p ro b ab le th a t th e fu tu re a i r will be w a rm e r and still polluted bu t not enough to cause discom fort. T h e re may be more o f us in some places. T h e r e will be more cars b u t they will be sm a lle r and more efficient. H e expects no worse th a n this for a t least th e next tw en ty years.

O th e r s , like P au l E h rlich , see a m uch gloom ier fu tu re . M o s t o f us believe in the m axim “ Business as u su a l” an d so we behave like the in h a b i ta n ts o f Tokyo and Los Angeles. W e p u t th oughts ab o u t the e a r th quake a t th e back o f ou r m inds. We ac t in the hope th a t th e world will continue in to th e tw enty-first cen tu ry m uch as it is now.

Few trav e lle rs from the N o rth would go to th e tro p ic a l South w ith ou t antim a la r ia l d ru g s , o r w ith ou t checking how the nearby local w a r was p rogressing. By com parison our jo u rn ey in to the fu tu re is am azingly unprepared. W here people know well the local d anger, as in Tokyo, they p rep a re for th e e a r th q u ak e to come. W hen the th re a ts a re global in scale we ignore them . Volcanoes, like T am b o u ra 1814 a n d Laki 1783, were m uch more powerful th a n was P in a tu bo o r K rakatoa. T h ey affected th e clim a te enough to cause fam ine, even when ou r num bers were only a te n th as m any as now. Should one o f these volcanoes stage a rep e a t perform ance, do we have now enough sto red food for tom o rrow ’s m u ltitu des? I f p a r t o f a Southern glacial ice sheet slid in to the sea, the level o f th e sea m ight rise by a metre all over the world. T h is event would ren d e r homeless millions o f those living in coastal cities. C itizen s would suddenly become refugees. Do we have the food a n d shelter needed when cities such as London, C a lc u t ta , M iam i and R o t te rd am become uninhabitable?

We a re sensible and we do not agonize over these possible doom scenarios. We prefer to assum e th a t they will not h appen in ou r lifetim es. We take th em no more seriously th a n our fo refathers took the p ro sp ec t o f hell, b u t the th ought o f ap p e a r in g foolish still scares us. An old verse goes, “ T h ey th ieve and plot an d toil and p lod and go to church on Sunday. I t ’s tru e enough th a t some fear God bu t they all fear M rs G ru n d y .”

In science we have ou r D rs G ru ndy also. T h ey a re all too eager to scorn any d e p a r tu re from th e perceived dogma. Scientists a n d science advisers a re afraid to adm i t th a t som e tim es they do not know w hat will happen. T h ey are cau tio u s ab o u t th e ir p red ic tio ns and do not care to speak in a way th a t m igh t th rea ten business as usual. T h is te ndency leaves us unp re p a re d for a c a ta s tro p h e such as a global event th a t was wholly unexpected a n d u n p r e d ic ted — som e th ing like th e ozone hole b u t m uch more serious. Som eth ing th a t could th row us in to a new d a rk age.

We can neither p rep a re ag a in s t all possibilities, nor easily change our ways enough to s top b reeding and polluting. Those who believe in the p re c au tio n a ry principle would have us give up, or greatly decrease, bu rn in g fossil fuel. They w a rn th a t the carbon d io x id e b y -p ro duct o f th is energy source may sooner or la te r change, or even destabilize, the clim ate.

Most o f us know in ou r hearts th a t these w arnings should be heeded but know not w hat to do ab o u t it. Few o f us will reduce our personal use o f fossil fuel energy to w arm , o r cool, our homes o r drive our cars. We suspect th a t we should not w a it to ac t until th e re is visible evidence o f malign clim a te change — by th en it m igh t be too la te to reverse the changes we have set in motion. We a re like the sm oker who enjoys a c ig arette and im agines giving up smoking when th e harm becomes tangible. M ost o f all, we hope for a good life in the im m ed ia te fu tu re and would ra th e r pu t aside u np le a san t thoughts o f doom to come.

WE C A N N O T REGARD the fu tu re o f the civilized world in the sam e way as we see our personal futures. I t is careless to be cavalier about ou r own d ea th . I t is reckless to th ink o f civilizat io n ’s end in the sam e way. Even if a to le rab le fu tu re is p ro bable, it is still unwise to ignore the possibility of disaster.

O n e th ing we can do to lessen the consequences o f ca ta s tro p h e is to write a guide-book for ou r survivors to help th em rebuild c iv iliz ation w ith out rep ea tin g too m any o f ou r mistakes. I have long th ought th a t a p ro per gift for ou r ch ild ren and g ran d ch ild ren is an accu ra te record o f all we know about the p resent and p a s t environm ent. Sandy and I enjoy walking on D a r t moor, m uch o f w h ich is featureless m oorland. O n such a la ndscape it is easy to get lost when it grows d a rk and the m ists come down. We usually avoid this m ish ap by m aking sure th a t always we know where we a re and w hat was the p a th we took. In some ways our jo u rn ey in to the fu tu re is like this. We c a n ’t see the way ahead or the p itfalls b u t it would help to know w hat is the s ta te now and how we got here. I t would help to have a guide-book w ritte n in c lear and sim ple words th a t any in te llig ent person could u n d e r s ta nd.

No such book exists. For most o f us, w hat we know o f the E a r th comes from books and television p rogram m es th a t p resen t e i th e r the single-m inded view o f a specialist, or persuasion from a ta len ted lobbyist. We live in adversarial not thoughtful tim es and tend to hear only th e a rg um e n ts o f each o f the sp e c ia l- in te re s t g roups. Even when they know th a t they a re w rong they never adm i t it. T h ey all fight for the in te rests o f th e ir g ro up while claim ing to speak for hum ank in d . T h is is fine en te r ta inm en t ; bu t w h a t use would th e ir words be to th e survivors o f a fu tu re flood o r fam ine? W hen they read them in a book d raw n from the

1 6 R e s u r g e n c e N o . 181

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