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October/November 2018

Contents

Cover story

Features

Regulars

10 Europe

A single currency with numerous flaws Duncan Weldon

Irish are fearful of Brexit Ed O’Loughlin

Brussels passes the ball back Erik Jones

20 Interview Hina Rabbani Khar, the former Pakistani foreign minister, on why China is a more reliable partner than the United States 24 America Trump faces a midterm backlash Kathleen Hunter Q&A with Peter Trubowitz 29 Big Data Is the internet swaying voters? Naomi Nikolajsen 32 Africa Why one-party politics needs to give way to plurality in southern Africa James Hamill 34 Diplomacy Canada’s lonely protest Mark Sedra Why Saudi Arabia hates criticism Jane Kinninmont 37 The big picture Tashkent metro, Uzbekistan 40 Middle East Not the time to repatriate Syrian refugees Allaa Barri Male rape in Syria’s war zone Charu Lata Hogg 44 Afghanistan Clearing the way for fair elections George Cunningham

4 Contributors 5 The world in brief including Jargonbuster, shorts and international events 9 Culture notes The psychological cost of drowned refugees Catherine Fieschi 23 Date with history October ,  : Black power salute Burhan Wazir 43 Postcard from Voronezh, Russia Mary Dejevsky 47 Review Israel’s assassination machine Jim Muir America: the game is up Michael Cox Reading list on Portugal 50 A week in the life of Suhil Helal, who is helping Syrian refugees settle in Britain

Cover by Matt Kenyon

From the Editor

The eurozone – the bloc of countries that use the euro common currency – is now emerging from an economic crisis that has lasted almost a decade. Our cover story asks if the renewal of growth means the eurozone is strong enough to survive the next crisis, whenever it comes.

Economist Duncan Weldon finds that the determination to make the euro project succeed is undimmed, even if the flaws inherent in its creation are unresolved. Erik Jones steps back to take a broader view of the European Union. The vision has gone, and with it the spirit of solidarity among the peoples of Europe. Richer states are less willing to help the poorer, who must now make themselves more self-suffi cient.

Not surprisingly, Donald Trump is confident that even if the Republicans take a beating at the midterm elections in November, he will escape impeachment. This may turn out to be true, but the world can still expect a bumpy ride next year. Read the forecasts of Kathleen Hunter (page ) and Peter Trubowitz (page ). When viewed from Washington, Pakistan is often cast as a two-faced ally. In our interview (page ), former foreign minister Hina Rabbani Khar sets out the other side of the argument. Pakistan is disappointed with the United States as a security partner and has found China to be the most reliable source of development aid.

It is now a commonplace that the algorithms feeding off the evidence we leave on the internet can assess our personalities so finely that our votes are being swayed by targeted messaging. Fear not, argues Naomi Nikolajsen on page , democracy is safe. The datadriven metrics are too crude to change our minds. Alan Philps

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