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DOSSIER Deforestation up rainforests. In the Amazon, according to WWF, this means that about 15 per cent of the deforested area (150.000 sq km) is in recovery. The appetite for enforcement is also key and was the case for Brazil’s modest success story. ‘It’s about the rule of law and whether the structures are in place,’ says Hansen. ‘That was important for Brazil and it did change behaviour.’ Baldwin-Cantello points to progress in recent years, including the commitment by many international companies, such as Unilever, Carrefour and Tesco to deforestation-free supply chains. ‘We need to see that change [expanded]. A lot of companies pledged to change their conduct by 2020 – many haven’t. Producers still have the option to move around. If you want to sell your food, you will find a buyer somewhere.’ Yet the activity in the Congo rainforest appears to reinforce this point; that the business model that produces palm oil, soya, timber, paper and pulp, far from being restructured by multinational companies, still has plenty of life in it. Not just that but it is being applied to new products. ‘The scale of deforestation linked to cocoa is becoming apparent,’ says Greenpeace’s Richard George. ‘Rubber is an increasing issue, as are maize, coconut, avocado and durian. You see the same business model applied time and time again: acquire land, clear it, plant it, clear it, sell it. Anything that becomes popular enough becomes a driver of deforestation.’ The reality is that a company facing the pressure of regulation or international scrutiny can still relocate much of its unsustainable practices to regions with less demanding legal structures. The debate on just how to tackle deforestation is often thrown back to the consumer: if we in the rich West did not choose to eat so much meat or buy furniture made from attractive tropical trees, the demand would not be met. While acknowledging the responsibility of individuals, George feels that international corporations must now take the main share of responsibility. ‘As individuals we have to eat less meat but it doesn’t just matter what we do, it matters what the food producers do.’ Greenpeace has little time for the business case that 2.0 (%) 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 Paraguay Average Annual Deforestation Rate 1991 – 2000 2001 – 2010 2011 – 2016 Argentina Ecuador ia liv B o la Venezue Peru Brazil Guyana ia lomb Co Suriname French iana Gu says if one company does the right thing, it will lose out to a more unscrupulous company. ‘The idea that if you don’t do it someone else will is not true,’ says George. ‘What’s actually happening is that companies are spending millions of dollars getting us to buy stuff we didn’t know we needed. If they want to stop deforestation and they want us to keep buying food from them then they have to make root and branch reforms to their business models.’ He points out that fast food companies are normalising a Western-style, meat-based diet in developing countries, saying ‘It’s not about selling a token vegan burger, it’s about how we meet most of our food needs with plants and how they make that connection with their customers. There is no way we are going to protect the rainforests if we are squeezing the palm oil and meat out of its resources. We need to be asking if these companies are fit for purpose to meet the changes in our society.’ Hansen points to a similar mindset when it comes to how companies invest their profits. ‘If a company Rainforests and climate change n The clearing and burning of tropical forests and peatlands – with the resultant loss of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (nitrous oxide, methane, and other nitrogen oxides) – accounts for about ten per cent of greenhouse gases from human activities. Rainforests are thought to store at least 250 billion tons of carbon and are considered crucial to preventing dangerous climate change. The ability of rainforests to sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and convert it into harmless carbon and oxygen is incorporated in the Paris Agreement. Forests are recognised as the most important natural carbon sinks; every year, trees collectively suck more than a hundred billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. A study by the Woods Hole Research Center, Rainforest Trust and Protecting, found that restoring and better managing tropical forests could provide as much as half the carbon emission reduction required to meet a 2°C climate target. ‘It is unlikely that fossil fuel emissions will fall by more than 80 per cent by 2050,’ the authors write, calculating that cumulative carbon emissions will exceed 400bn tonnes of carbon between 2000 and 2050, and a greater-than-50 per cent chance of exceeding a global warming of 2°C. So are we already committed to a warming of 2°C or greater?’ the authors write. ‘Not necessarily — absorption of carbon by tropical forests could offset much of the release of fossil fuel carbon, thus stabilising and then reducing the CO² concentration in the atmosphere within just a few decades, and providing a bridge to a fossil-fuel-free world.’ 22 • Geographical
page 23
makes a packet from soy, what is it going to do with the profits? It just uses it to clear more land.’ The notion that companies may think it wise to allow forest to recover so that they can continue to harvest it, much in the way of fisheries – is naive, he says. ‘You would think that if there was just 20 per cent forest left in a region, they’d leave it, but they don’t. They just take it all out,’ says Hansen. In Brazil, argues George, national and international companies that make money from food sustained by the rainforests must now stand up to the new regime. ‘Companies that produce beef and soy feed need say that they need the Amazon protected,’ he says. ‘It’s not in their interests for the Amazon to be trashed – if that happens, where will they source their feed?’ Data source: FAO (2019) & own calculations Forests and deforestation in South America Data source: FAO (2019) & own calculations Forests and deforestation in South America Colombia Guyana French Guiana Venezuela Suriname EcuadorEcuador Peru Countries along the Amazon basin 250,000 Countries along the Amazon basin 100,000 Circle sizes (thousand hectares) 250,000 10,000 100,000 10,000 Bolivia Paraguay Brazil Chile Argentina Forest extent (1990) Deforestation extent (1990-2016) [thousand hectares] Uruguay Forest extent (1990) Deforestation extent (1990-2016) [thousand hectares] (Chile and Uruguay have recorded no net decline in forest loss) He feels that the major food companies are facing the same kind of investor crunch that now confronts the oil and gas industry: that those businesses who choose to invest in unsustainable exploitation of natural resources risk having their assets stranded in a few years’ time. ‘There’s a superficial willingness by companies to notionally commit to tackling their supply chains,’ says George. ‘But when you get away from the rhetoric to the realpolitik of the situation they are faced with the reality that they can’t just source palm oil whenever they want if it is to be sustainable. The two approaches are incompatible. If you are sustainable it means there will be times when there is no shipment of palm oil to be made. So they still make the choice, that they still want to make as many biscuits as they can.’ DAMAGE CONTROL For the rainforests, an unpalatable choice is looming, suggests Hansen. We may, he says, have to brace ourselves to simply give up on large tracts of rainforest, accept they will be lost for good, and focus on areas where there is a fighting chance of preserving them. This might mean concentrating efforts on the Amazon rainforest that lies north of the great river, parts of central Borneo and West Papua and accept that other areas, such as swathes of Cambodian and other Southeast Asian rainforest, will be lost for good. The meaningful progress made in Brazil in recent years, says Baldwin-Cantello, gives grounds for optimism. ‘We saw a dramatic decline in deforestation rates in Brazil between 2003 and 2014,’ he says. The soy moratorium, an increase in law enforcement and monitoring and incentive scheme that black-listed municipalities linked to deforestation all played their part. ‘There were hard-line incentives and rewards to do things differently,’ he says. ‘We know what needs to be done and how to do it but when power and interests don’t align it becomes diffi cult.’ Seymour is optimistic that progress will come and draws parallels with the American civil rights movement. ‘I take heart from the experience of my father. He dedicated his life to the civil rights movement and social justice. Social change doesn’t happen in a linear way. We are near a tipping point, where something acceptable becomes unacceptable. That can happen very quickly. We’ve seen that with plastic straws. Their impact is pretty limited but it shows how things can change very quickly. When that happens we have a tool kit to deploy. It’s down to political will.’ Baldwin-Cantello believes that much of the effort to reverse deforestation in recent years have occurred below the radar and that benefits will become apparent sooner rather than later. ‘It’s a bit like putting money in the bank – we’ve not yet seen the profits. There’s been good progress on financing, on shifts in consumer behaviour but the result aren’t yet measurable.’ The reality, says Greenpeace’s George, is that ‘there is no more road to kick the can along.’ A profound change in how we consume and how we are provided with what we consume looms large. ‘We have to start tackling the existential challenges. It’s diffi cult for policy makers to ignore it. It won’t be a smooth journey but there is now no dispute about what needs to happen. The only question is who decides to make the first move.’ ● September 2019 • 23

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DOSSIER Deforestation up rainforests. In the Amazon, according to WWF, this means that about 15 per cent of the deforested area (150.000 sq km) is in recovery. The appetite for enforcement is also key and was the case for Brazil’s modest success story. ‘It’s about the rule of law and whether the structures are in place,’ says Hansen. ‘That was important for Brazil and it did change behaviour.’

Baldwin-Cantello points to progress in recent years, including the commitment by many international companies, such as Unilever, Carrefour and Tesco to deforestation-free supply chains. ‘We need to see that change [expanded]. A lot of companies pledged to change their conduct by 2020 – many haven’t. Producers still have the option to move around. If you want to sell your food, you will find a buyer somewhere.’

Yet the activity in the Congo rainforest appears to reinforce this point; that the business model that produces palm oil, soya, timber, paper and pulp, far from being restructured by multinational companies, still has plenty of life in it. Not just that but it is being applied to new products. ‘The scale of deforestation linked to cocoa is becoming apparent,’ says Greenpeace’s Richard George. ‘Rubber is an increasing issue, as are maize, coconut, avocado and durian. You see the same business model applied time and time again: acquire land, clear it, plant it, clear it, sell it. Anything that becomes popular enough becomes a driver of deforestation.’ The reality is that a company facing the pressure of regulation or international scrutiny can still relocate much of its unsustainable practices to regions with less demanding legal structures. The debate on just how to tackle deforestation is often thrown back to the consumer: if we in the rich West did not choose to eat so much meat or buy furniture made from attractive tropical trees, the demand would not be met. While acknowledging the responsibility of individuals, George feels that international corporations must now take the main share of responsibility. ‘As individuals we have to eat less meat but it doesn’t just matter what we do, it matters what the food producers do.’

Greenpeace has little time for the business case that

2.0 (%)

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

Paraguay

Average Annual Deforestation Rate

1991 – 2000

2001 – 2010 2011 – 2016

Argentina

Ecuador ia liv

B o la

Venezue

Peru

Brazil

Guyana ia lomb

Co

Suriname

French iana

Gu says if one company does the right thing, it will lose out to a more unscrupulous company. ‘The idea that if you don’t do it someone else will is not true,’ says George. ‘What’s actually happening is that companies are spending millions of dollars getting us to buy stuff we didn’t know we needed. If they want to stop deforestation and they want us to keep buying food from them then they have to make root and branch reforms to their business models.’

He points out that fast food companies are normalising a Western-style, meat-based diet in developing countries, saying ‘It’s not about selling a token vegan burger, it’s about how we meet most of our food needs with plants and how they make that connection with their customers. There is no way we are going to protect the rainforests if we are squeezing the palm oil and meat out of its resources. We need to be asking if these companies are fit for purpose to meet the changes in our society.’

Hansen points to a similar mindset when it comes to how companies invest their profits. ‘If a company

Rainforests and climate change n The clearing and burning of tropical forests and peatlands – with the resultant loss of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (nitrous oxide, methane, and other nitrogen oxides) – accounts for about ten per cent of greenhouse gases from human activities.

Rainforests are thought to store at least 250 billion tons of carbon and are considered crucial to preventing dangerous climate change. The ability of rainforests to sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and convert it into harmless carbon and oxygen is incorporated in the Paris Agreement. Forests are recognised as the most important natural carbon sinks; every year, trees collectively suck more than a hundred billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

A study by the Woods Hole Research Center, Rainforest Trust and Protecting, found that restoring and better managing tropical forests could provide as much as half the carbon emission reduction required to meet a 2°C climate target. ‘It is unlikely that fossil fuel emissions will fall by more than 80 per cent by 2050,’

the authors write, calculating that cumulative carbon emissions will exceed 400bn tonnes of carbon between 2000 and 2050, and a greater-than-50 per cent chance of exceeding a global warming of 2°C. So are we already committed to a warming of 2°C or greater?’ the authors write. ‘Not necessarily — absorption of carbon by tropical forests could offset much of the release of fossil fuel carbon, thus stabilising and then reducing the CO² concentration in the atmosphere within just a few decades, and providing a bridge to a fossil-fuel-free world.’

22 • Geographical

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