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Analysis CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL 1367 b y i l e d c o m p 16 ,g r a p h PM O D ia n d l a n k ,S o N A S A f r o m :D a t a S o u r c e l i c e n c e CC u n d e ra . c o m i e n c e l s c . s k e p t i c a w w w (watts/metre 2 ) iance larIrrad lSo Tota 1366.5 1366 1365.6 Solar Activity (11 year average) Temperature (11 year average) 0.5 0 )(˚C Change Temperature 1365 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 –0.5 Figure 4: Global temperature (red) and Total solar irradiance (blue) long-term process; weather is about short-term, day-to-day changes due to local patterns of wind, evaporation and ocean currents, and is more unpredictable. A few weeks of cold weather in one location tells us little about long-term global temperature change – that’s why we need all those thousands of temperature measurement stations taking decades’ worth of readings. Those measurements are telling us that every time there’s a bit of unusually cold weather somewhere in the world, it’s being outweighed by many more examples of unusually hot weather elsewhere, and so the overall trend is of a warming planet. Myths about other things that might be causing it ‘Volcanoes produce more CO2 than humans’ This one’s just nonsense – humanity is responsible for at least 60 times the CO2 of volcanoes.13 This point was firmly underlined when the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajokull erupted in March 2010; the resulting ash cloud led to the grounding of planes across Europe for several weeks, preventing far more carbon dioxide than the volcano was emitting. It created a net saving of around 50,000 tonnes of CO2 per day.14 ‘It’s caused by the sun’ The sun does occasionally go through periods of increased activity, where it puts out a bit of extra heat. However, all the extra sun activity of the last 150 years can only account for a small amount of the warming we’ve seen in that time – the rest must be due to something else. Sun activity has remained roughly level since the 1960s, and has, in fact, been cooler than usual since 2003 – see Figure 4. This is all well-measured and noncontroversial.15 So it can’t be due to the sun alone. ‘It’s caused by cosmic rays/something else’ There are other ‘theories’ out there, but with little or no evidence to back them up. Of course, in order to overturn the existing theory of human-made global warming, they’d need to have a mountain of contrary evidence that explains why the current scientific explanation isn’t correct. For example, if you decided that the real reason why leaves fall off trees in winter is that they’re being tugged off by mischievous squirrels, you’d need a bit more evidence than a photo of a squirrel sheepishly clutching an oak leaf. None of the other supposed explanations for climate change can provide the evidence (for example, the ‘cosmic rays’ idea comes from a handful of largely discredited scientific papers about the possible effect of cosmic rays on cloud formation17). Quick snippets of falseness #2 ‘The glaciers are growing, not shrinking!’ In any given year, some glaciers will grow a bit, because of local cold weather or extra snow. Professional deniers point at this minority of growing glaciers and pretend that all the rest don’t exist. Once you look at all the world’s glaciers at once, the shrinking trend is clear – they’ve lost over 20% of their mass since 194526. 18 ● N ew I n t e r nat i o nal i s t ● MAY 2 011
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Myths about the effects of climate change ‘The Antarctic ice is growing, not shrinking’ This is true for certain areas of Antarctica – and, intriguingly, it actually gives us more evidence for global warming. Increased evaporation caused by higher temperatures has led to more snowfall in some parts of Antarctica, and thus thicker ice cover in these areas (usually inland). Closer to the sea (which is warming faster than the air) the ice is retreating. ‘Climate change has good effects, not just bad ones!’ True – up to a point. Warmer winters in some countries will mean fewer people die from cold. Increased temperatures have made it easier to grow crops in some regions. Sadly, these small pockets of positive effects are hugely outweighed by the negative ones.18 We have built almost all our settlements in places that are comfortable and fertile in our current climate, and our ways of growing food are carefully adapted to the weather we’ve been used to for thousands of years. Rapid changes in the Earth’s climate are already starting to throw this out of kilter – hence increasing deaths from storms, floods and famines. Even if climate change makes some places more comfortable to humans, do we expect everyone to migrate to the limited number of places where this is so? ‘Climate change is a problem, but there are bigger problems that we need to tackle first’ This argument offers a false choice – we can (and should) tackle the problems of climate change, poverty, healthcare etc all at the same time. Many of these problems have the same root causes – the relentless pursuit of profit and Quick snippets of falseness #3 ‘There’s a new study that says the climate scientists were wrong’ New research is being done all the time to improve our understanding of the details of climate change. Sometimes this will contradict earlier ideas about certain climate change effects – for example, we now know that global warming isn’t likely to produce more frequent tropical storms, just more powerful ones. But it doesn’t contradict the underlying theory of human-made climate change – it just helps us to improve our understanding of its effects. economic growth over people’s real needs – so it makes sense to work on them all together. Climate change is making many of the world’s problems much worse – Kofi Annan’s Global Humanitarian Forum19 found that climate change threatens all eight of the Millennium Development Goals20 and is making it much harder to tackle global poverty and disease. Any progress we make in these areas will be swept away by climate change, unless we act to prevent its worst effects. ‘We can’t trust the computer models’ While the ‘big picture’ climate change predictions (increased temperatures, more evaporation, melting ice caps and rising seas) are based on observed results and the prehistoric record, the more detailed projections (how much climate change, where, and by when) are based on computer models. These models are constantly checked and improved, and tested against real-life scenarios to make sure they’re as accurate as possible, but there are always going to be some uncertainties. This is why climate scientists talk in terms of probabilities and risks; no-one knows all the details of what’s going to happen as the climate changes, but these models can show us the most likely trends and give us some useful indications and warnings. Some use this uncertainty to argue against taking action to tackle climate change and N ew I n t e r nat i o nal i s t ● MAY 2 011● 19

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Analysis CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL

1367

b y i l e d c o m p

16 ,g r a p h

PM O D

ia n d l a n k

,S o

N A S A

f r o m

:D a t a

S o u r c e l i c e n c e

CC

u n d e ra

. c o m i e n c e l s c

. s k e p t i c a w w w

(watts/metre 2 )

iance larIrrad lSo

Tota

1366.5

1366

1365.6

Solar Activity (11 year average)

Temperature (11 year average)

0.5

0

)(˚C

Change

Temperature

1365

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

–0.5

Figure 4: Global temperature (red) and Total solar irradiance (blue)

long-term process; weather is about short-term, day-to-day changes due to local patterns of wind, evaporation and ocean currents, and is more unpredictable. A few weeks of cold weather in one location tells us little about long-term global temperature change – that’s why we need all those thousands of temperature measurement stations taking decades’ worth of readings. Those measurements are telling us that every time there’s a bit of unusually cold weather somewhere in the world, it’s being outweighed by many more examples of unusually hot weather elsewhere, and so the overall trend is of a warming planet.

Myths about other things that might be causing it ‘Volcanoes produce more CO2 than humans’ This one’s just nonsense – humanity is responsible for at least 60 times the CO2 of volcanoes.13 This point was firmly underlined when the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajokull erupted in March 2010; the resulting ash cloud led to the grounding of planes across Europe for several weeks, preventing far more carbon dioxide than the volcano was emitting. It created a net saving of around 50,000 tonnes of CO2 per day.14

‘It’s caused by the sun’ The sun does occasionally go through periods of increased activity, where it puts out a bit of extra heat. However, all the extra sun activity of the last 150 years can only account for a small amount of the warming we’ve seen in that time – the rest must be due to something else. Sun activity has remained roughly level since the 1960s, and has, in fact, been cooler than usual since 2003 – see Figure 4. This is all well-measured and noncontroversial.15 So it can’t be due to the sun alone. ‘It’s caused by cosmic rays/something else’ There are other ‘theories’ out there, but with little or no evidence to back them up. Of course, in order to overturn the existing theory of human-made global warming, they’d need to have a mountain of contrary evidence that explains why the current scientific explanation isn’t correct. For example, if you decided that the real reason why leaves fall off trees in winter is that they’re being tugged off by mischievous squirrels, you’d need a bit more evidence than a photo of a squirrel sheepishly clutching an oak leaf. None of the other supposed explanations for climate change can provide the evidence (for example, the ‘cosmic rays’ idea comes from a handful of largely discredited scientific papers about the possible effect of cosmic rays on cloud formation17).

Quick snippets of falseness #2 ‘The glaciers are growing, not shrinking!’ In any given year, some glaciers will grow a bit, because of local cold weather or extra snow. Professional deniers point at this minority of growing glaciers and pretend that all the rest don’t exist. Once you look at all the world’s glaciers at once, the shrinking trend is clear – they’ve lost over 20% of their mass since 194526.

18 ● N ew I n t e r nat i o nal i s t ● MAY 2 011

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