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Analysis CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL 2010 was the joint-hottest year in recorded human history Global Top 10 Warmest Years (Jan-Dec)* 2010 2005 1998 2003 2002 2009 2006 2007 2004 Anomaly oC Anomaly oF 0.62 0.62 0.60 0.58 0.58 0.56 0.56 0.55 0.54 1.12 1.12 1.08 1.04 1.04 ilometres) C l i m a t e C h a n g e – K e y F a ct s Globally, natural disasters doubled between 1980 and 2009 Last year’s Arctic sea ice minimum was the thirdlowest in the satellite record, continuing the ongoing downward trend 1.01 1.01 0.99 ksquare 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 0.97 illion 2001 0.52 (‘Anomaly’ here means the difference in temperature compared with the 1951 to 1980 average) Source: NOAA. 0.94 Ex tent(m Average Monthly Artic Sea Ice Extent September 1979 to 2010 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Source: National Snow and Data Center 1200 1000 isasters fd Numbero 800 600 400 200 0 The top three sections – all of which contain events which could be linked to climate change – have grown noticeably. The bottom section, which records natural disasters not linked to climate change, has not grown in the same way.1 The United Nations Environment Program has found a similar trend stretching back to 1900.2 Source: Munich Reinsurance Company 2010. Top CO2 emitters China is now the world’s biggest overall emitter of CO2 – but is still far behind Europe, the US, Canada and Australia in per capita terms. 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Geophysical events (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) Hydrological events (flood, mass movement) Meteorological events (storm) Climatological events (extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Total and per-person annual CO2 emissions (from fossil fuels and cement production) of the 20 highest-emitting countries in 20092 Annual Emissions Percentage of Tonnes of CO2 (Millions of tonnes of CO2) global CO2 emissions per person in 2009 China 8,060 26.0% 6.1 USA 5,310 17.1% 17.2 India 1,670 5.4% 1.4 Russia 1,570 5.1% 11.2 Japan 1,180 3.8% 9.2 Germany 770 2.5% 9.3 Iran 570 1.8% 7.7 South Korea 560 1.8% 11.5 Canada 540 1.7% 16.3 UK 490 1.6% 8.1 Mexico 470 1.5% 4.2 Indonesia 440 1.4% 1.9 Italy 410 1.3% 7.0 Australia 400 1.3% 18.8 Brazil 380 1.2% 1.9 South Africa 380 1.2% 8.0 Saudi Arabia 370 1.2% 13.6 France 370 1.0% 6.0 Spain 310 1.0% 7.1 Ukraine 310 1.0% 8.0 TOTAL 24,560 79.2% n/a Iran Argentina South Korea Spain Saudi Arabia South Africa Romania Italy Japan France Netherlands Poland Australia Canada Former Czechoslovakia Germany Belgium Russia & former USSR Analysis Center (CDIAC), part of the US Department of Energy; calculation by Danny Chivers. Historical emissions This table divides up the historical emissions of each nation by the number of current residents, to get a ‘historical per capita responsibility’ total. This is the amount of CO2 that has been emitted since 1850 to provide each current citizen of that nation with the lifestyle they currently enjoy.3 Per resident, Britain, the US, Russia, Belgium and Germany have the largest historical responsibility for CO2 emissions, at around 1,000 tonnes per person living today. Europe and North America dominate the chart; India and China don’t even make it into the top twenty. USA UK 0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 Tonnes CO2 per capita 1, 0 0 0 1 There is evidence that retreating ice sheets can increase the frequency of volcanic events in some areas, but this is currently limited to a very few places and so the global effect is small. 2 http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/number-of-disasters-per-year 3 Raw historical emissions data from the Carbon Dioxide Information 1, 2 0 0 2 2 ● N ew I n t e r nat i o nal i s t ● MAY 2 011
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Climate Denial: A Spotter’s Guide 1 The Professional Contrarian A relatively small group of prominent journalists, authors, politicians, and even one or two qualified climatologists who seem to have devoted their lives to challenging climate science. They keep popping up on the TV or the radio with some plausible-sounding reasons why climate change isn’t really happening, or isn’t that bad. Very few of their claims ever stand up to serious scrutiny, but that doesn’t stop them from repeating them again and again.1 They’re usually white, wealthy, middle-aged or older men who’ve done well out of the status quo and are about as far away from the climate frontline as it’s possible to get. They become high-profile because a) their message is popular with the ‘Happily Misinformed’ (see below), b) the mainstream media give them far more attention than they deserve, and c) they receive loads of funding and support from... 4 The Happily Misinformed Most of the people who don’t believe in climate change aren’t in the pay of oil companies or right-wing politicians. Climate change is a difficult and scary thing to get your head around, especially if you have a busy life with more immediate things to worry about. If some nice well-spoken person pops up on the radio with some comforting reasons not to worry about climate change, then it ’s very, very tempting to believe them... 2 The Vested Interests Coal, gas and oil companies pour millions of dollars into anti-climatescience ‘think tanks’ and lobby groups filled with Professional Contrarians.2 These organizations don’t need to come up with any solid scientific arguments, they just need to spread enough confusion and misinformation to slow down action on climate change, thus maintaining the fossil fuel companies’ profits for a little while longer. It’s the same tactic that tobacco companies used to delay government action on smoking for so many years (and is even being carried out by some of the same people3). 3 The Political Ideologue To prevent total climate chaos we’ll need to stop burning fossil fuels, rein in the more destructive activities of corporations, governments and markets, give more power to disenfranchised communities and make some fundamental changes to the way our economies work. This doesn’t fit too happily with the political ideology, business interests, and/or funding sources of certain politicians and commentators. Rather than changing their political beliefs to fit the facts, they’ve chosen to deny the facts instead. 5 The Rest of Us Pretty much all of us are at least slightly in denial over how serious this problem is. For example, the majority of people in the wealthy world say that they believe in human-made climate change – but most of us still drive cars, use more energy than we need, and fly off on holiday whenever we get the chance. Marches and demonstrations demanding climate action from the government have never been bigger than tens of thousands of people. We all tell each other that climate change is a serious issue, but do we really believe it? 4 Of course, this only applies to those of us living relatively comfortable lives in industrialized nations. The millions of people on the climate frontline, watching their homelands flooding, melting, drying out or being ripped apart by storms, don’t have the luxury of denial. Danny Chivers 1 There are numerous examples at www.desmogblog.com 2 Union of Concerned Scientists (2007), ‘Smoke, Mirrors & Hot Air: How ExxonMobil Uses Big Tobacco’s Tactics to Manufacture Uncertainty on Climate Science’. Available at www.ucsusa.org. See www.sourcewatch.org for more examples like this. 3 UCS (2007), as above 4 See George Marshall’s 2007 book Carbon Detox for ideas on how to overcome this problem. N ew I n t e r nat i o nal i s t ● may 2 011 ● 2 3

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Analysis CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL

2010 was the joint-hottest year in recorded human history

Global Top 10

Warmest Years (Jan-Dec)*

2010

2005

1998

2003

2002

2009

2006

2007

2004

Anomaly oC Anomaly oF

0.62

0.62

0.60

0.58

0.58

0.56

0.56

0.55

0.54

1.12

1.12

1.08

1.04

1.04

ilometres)

C l i m a t e C h a n g e – K e y F a ct s Globally, natural disasters doubled between 1980 and 2009 Last year’s Arctic sea ice minimum was the thirdlowest in the satellite record, continuing the ongoing downward trend

1.01

1.01

0.99

ksquare

8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0

0.97

illion

2001

0.52

(‘Anomaly’ here means the difference in temperature compared with the 1951 to 1980 average) Source: NOAA.

0.94

Ex tent(m

Average Monthly Artic Sea Ice Extent

September 1979 to 2010

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Source: National Snow and Data Center

1200

1000

isasters fd

Numbero

800

600

400

200

0

The top three sections – all of which contain events which could be linked to climate change – have grown noticeably. The bottom section, which records natural disasters not linked to climate change, has not grown in the same way.1 The United Nations Environment Program has found a similar trend stretching back to 1900.2 Source: Munich Reinsurance Company 2010.

Top CO2 emitters China is now the world’s biggest overall emitter of CO2 – but is still far behind Europe, the US, Canada and Australia in per capita terms.

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Geophysical events (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) Hydrological events (flood, mass movement) Meteorological events (storm) Climatological events (extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Total and per-person annual CO2 emissions (from fossil fuels and cement production) of the 20 highest-emitting countries in 20092 Annual Emissions Percentage of Tonnes of CO2 (Millions of tonnes of CO2) global CO2 emissions per person in 2009 China 8,060 26.0% 6.1 USA 5,310 17.1% 17.2 India 1,670 5.4% 1.4 Russia 1,570 5.1% 11.2 Japan 1,180 3.8% 9.2 Germany 770 2.5% 9.3 Iran 570 1.8% 7.7 South Korea 560 1.8% 11.5 Canada 540 1.7% 16.3 UK 490 1.6% 8.1 Mexico 470 1.5% 4.2 Indonesia 440 1.4% 1.9 Italy 410 1.3% 7.0 Australia 400 1.3% 18.8 Brazil 380 1.2% 1.9 South Africa 380 1.2% 8.0 Saudi Arabia 370 1.2% 13.6 France 370 1.0% 6.0 Spain 310 1.0% 7.1 Ukraine 310 1.0% 8.0 TOTAL 24,560 79.2% n/a

Iran Argentina South Korea

Spain Saudi Arabia South Africa

Romania

Italy Japan France Netherlands

Poland Australia

Canada Former Czechoslovakia

Germany Belgium Russia & former USSR

Analysis Center (CDIAC), part of the US Department of Energy; calculation by Danny Chivers. Historical emissions This table divides up the historical emissions of each nation by the number of current residents, to get a ‘historical per capita responsibility’ total. This is the amount of CO2 that has been emitted since 1850 to provide each current citizen of that nation with the lifestyle they currently enjoy.3 Per resident, Britain, the US, Russia, Belgium and Germany have the largest historical responsibility for CO2 emissions, at around 1,000 tonnes per person living today. Europe and North America dominate the chart; India and China don’t even make it into the top twenty.

USA UK

0

2 0 0

4 0 0

6 0 0

8 0 0

Tonnes CO2 per capita

1,

0 0 0

1 There is evidence that retreating ice sheets can increase the frequency of volcanic events in some areas, but this is currently limited to a very few places and so the global effect is small. 2 http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/number-of-disasters-per-year 3 Raw historical emissions data from the Carbon Dioxide Information

1,

2 0 0

2 2 ● N ew I n t e r nat i o nal i s t ● MAY 2 011

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