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December 2020/January 2021

Contents

Cover story

Features

Regulars

8 Turkey Too autocratic and too wayward to join the European club

Hugh Pope and Nigar Goksel Erdogan's populism loses appeal Fadi Hakura Trading goods and insults Berrak Rasool

16 Interview Margaret MacMillan, historian of conflict, on the way the First World War helped the cause of gender equality 20 United States How racial justice protests shaped the US

presidential election Gary Younge Life after Trump Daniel Strieff 24 Europe Why the Balkans is losing the numbers game

Tim Judah Anger at Poland's abortion law Angelika Kerlin Bosnia-Herzegovina's prisoners of a peace accord Nadan Hadzic 30 Race and Empire The benefits of reinterpreting our past through today's values David Veevers 32 Foreign broadcasting In praise of the BBC World Service

Sarah Sands China's TikTok diplomacy in the Middle East Mohamed El Aassar 35 Asia India's love affair with Xiaomi's smartphone eclipses border tensions Sophie Zinser 36 Coronavirus Pandemic is drowning out women's voices

Leah de Haan 38 The big picture Armenian villagers flee as Azerbaijani forces prevail 40 Centenary Chatham House and the suffragist cause

Gitika Bhardwaj 43 Competition What does it take to be a good leader? Our

2021 school writing competition 44 Centenary Quiz Play the Chatham House name game

4 Contributors 5 The world in brief including Jargonbuster and shorts 19 Postcard Portugal's ugly face of racism

Joana Gorjão Henriques 46 Review A murkier Merkel Hans Kundnani

Hydro-politics in the Middle East Greg Shapland Reading list: Herstory, women's history 50 Culture notes Globally challenged

Catherine Fieschi Cover by Myriam Wares

From the Editor As the long goodbye of the Trump administration plays out in Washington, we focus on a leader who has taken full advantage of America’s retreat from some of its global responsibilities. The rise of Turkey as a regionally disruptive power under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is often discussed in terms of 'Who lost Turkey?'. The authors of our cover story look beyond this simple trope to discover where the country is heading – and the economic weaknesses that may hold it back.

On page 20, Gary Younge, who chronicled the fissures in American society for The Guardian for 15 years, assesses the effect on the US election of the protests that began in May after police killed George Floyd. Social movements can force an issue up the agenda, he writes, but they can also polarize the electorate so that change becomes harder to achieve.

In our interview (page 16) Margaret MacMillan, the Canadian historian, discusses the ways that conflict has shaped society, for better or worse. The First World War is a case in point, leading to the first voting rights in Britain for women and an expanded franchise for men previously excluded. We look at this process in detail in our article on the role of women at the Paris Peace Conference on page 40. Our reading list on page 49 will guide you to some of the lesserknown heroines of the struggle for women’s rights.

To celebrate its centenary, Chatham House has collected the names of more than 10,000 people who have spoken at the institute since 1920. For our year-end quiz, we ask you to search our ‘wall’ of names for the movers and shakers in foreign affairs over the past century. Good luck – it’s not as hard as it sounds – and best wishes from all at The World Today for a peaceful 2021. Alan Philps the world today | december 2020 & january 2021 | 3

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