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COP26 Anna Aberg, Antony Froggatt and Rebecca Peters lay down markers for what would constitute a successful summit The COP talks in Glasgow have been described in the media as the last chance to save the planet. If the talks are to be deemed a success substantial progress must be made in three areas: raising the ambition of national climate plans; supporting climate-vulnerable developing countries; and advancing the Paris Agreement’s implementation guide, known as the Paris Rulebook. Raising the ambition of climate pledges The Paris Agreement has a bottom-up architecture, in which each government decides by how much it will reduce its greenhouse gas emissions within a given time. These pledges are called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). A first round of these pledges was submitted in but they were not ambitious enough to reduce emissions to levels consistent with ‘well below’ C, let alone . C. Governments are supposed to submit new or updated pledges every five years, with the expectation that ambition will increase over time. COP is the first ‘test’ of this ratchet mechanism, and a key benchmark for success in Glasgow is whether parties submit new or updated NDCs that collectively keep the goal of limiting warming to . C within reach. Such pledges should be supported by concrete policies at the national level, and by deals – be they governmental, private or public-private – on important issues such as the phasing out of the use of coal and the protection of nature. By September , countries and the member states of the European Union have communicated new or updated NDCs. A few governments, such as China and Japan, have proposed new targets but not yet communicated them to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Some of the updates are significantly more ambitious. For instance, the European Union has raised its target from ‘at least per cent’ to ‘at least per cent’. Britain has pledged to cut its emissions by at least per cent by and per cent by ; and the United States has set a mitigation target of - per cent by the end of this decade. But the gap between the new targets and what is needed to be consistent with . C remains huge: Climate Action Tracker estimates the NDC updates only go per cent of the way at most. It is crucial that governments improve their mitigation pledges. The parties or so that are yet to submit NDCs need to do so, while countries that have communicated unambitious targets – like Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, and Russia – should revisit their offers. The G countries, which account for per cent of global emissions, have particularly important roles to play. Should the pledges made by the time of COP not be strong enough to close to gap to . C, governments need to agree on a strategy to raise ambitions in the early s. This could include a statement calling on governments to revisit NDCs earlier Previous page: A farm worker in Kaumba, Zambia, looks up at an ominous sky. The farm he works for is owned by Linah and Godfrey Hapaka, who are taking part in a World Food Programme project to ease the adoption of climate-smart agriculture following severe droughts 10 Above: A man stands on the beach watching a wild fire engulf trees. Scores of Greek residents were forced to leave their homes as flames raged across a nature reserve near Mount Geraneia in May 2021
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than the Paris timetable dictates, for instance in instead of . Supporting the vulnerable While no country can escape the climate crisis, it is generally those who have emitted least that are worst affected. In many developing countries, financial constraints are an important factor that impedes the ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The Covid pandemic has made this challenge more acute. While industrialized countries have spent unprecedented sums on supporting their economies – and have high vaccination rates –many climate-vulnerable countries are grappling with a health and economic catastrophe. Higher ambition and increased action on climate finance, adaptation and ‘loss and damage’ – the climate-change effects that cannot be avoided – are vital to support those most affected and to maintain trust in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change process. More concretely, it is essential that industrialized countries show – before COP – that the goal of raising an annual $ billion in climate finance for developing countries will be achieved this year. Clarity is also needed on how the pledge will be exceeded in coming years – to make up for initial shortfalls - and on how finance for adaptation will be increased so it reaches at least $ billion a year. A positive outcome at COP also requires significant progress in the negotiations on a post- climate finance goal; on further defining the Paris Agreement’s global goal on adaptation; and on further operationalizing the Santiago Network on Loss and Damage, an initiative launched at COP in Madrid to help vulnerable countries minimize the risks from climate change. COP must also, provide sufficient space for discussions about how to advance the Loss and Damage agenda more broadly. Finalizing the Paris Rulebook After COP in , countries gave themselves three years to agree on rules to implement the Paris Agreement. Most of the Paris Rulebook was agreed in , but some issues were left unsettled. Finalizing the rulebook is important because it spells out how countries should communicate their climate pledges and review progress. Perhaps the thorniest rulebook issue to be resolved at COP is that of carbon markets. In Article of the Paris Agreement, disputes on how to structure the exchange of carbon units in an international market have led to retrenched negotiating positions. Countries must also ensure that they avoid ‘double counting’ when calculating reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, which hinders target setting and reporting. Other outstanding issues remain. A robust transparency framework is crucial to develop accurate comparative assessments of ambition. In the absence of complete information and the differential application of metrics used for Paris reporting, holding parties accountable is challenging. Finally, establishing common timeframes – checkpoints for when ambitions may be increased – is viewed as the ‘most underrated and misunderstood’ issue in climate talks. The absence of a common timeframe for reporting and action could drive an imbalance in pressure across parties. Agreement in this area has significant bearing on the underlying discussion on enhancing pledges. Climate change is the defining challenge of our time. Every fraction of a degree of warming makes a difference. COP alone will not determine whether the Paris goals are reached, but it does play a key role. With the clock ticking down to Glasgow, it is crucial that governments come together and act for the collective security, health and prosperity of our planet and its people. History will not judge kindly. Antony Froggatt is Senior Research Fellow and Deputy Director, Environment and Society Programme, Chatham House. Anna Aberg is Research Analyst, Environment and Society Programme. Rebecca Peters is Leland Foundation Association of Marshall Scholars Transat l ant i c Academy Fe l l ow, Environment and Society Programme I M AG E S I A G E T T Y A F P V 11

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COP26

Anna Aberg, Antony Froggatt and Rebecca Peters lay down markers for what would constitute a successful summit

The COP talks in Glasgow have been described in the media as the last chance to save the planet. If the talks are to be deemed a success substantial progress must be made in three areas: raising the ambition of national climate plans; supporting climate-vulnerable developing countries; and advancing the Paris Agreement’s implementation guide, known as the Paris Rulebook.

Raising the ambition of climate pledges The Paris Agreement has a bottom-up architecture, in which each government decides by how much it will reduce its greenhouse gas emissions within a given time. These pledges are called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). A first round of these pledges was submitted in but they were not ambitious enough to reduce emissions to levels consistent with ‘well below’ C, let alone . C.

Governments are supposed to submit new or updated pledges every five years, with the expectation that ambition will increase over time. COP is the first ‘test’ of this ratchet mechanism, and a key benchmark for success in Glasgow is whether parties submit new or updated NDCs that collectively keep the goal of limiting warming to . C within reach.

Such pledges should be supported by concrete policies at the national level, and by deals – be they governmental, private or public-private – on important issues such as the phasing out of the use of coal and the protection of nature.

By September , countries and the member states of the European Union have communicated new or updated NDCs. A few governments, such as China and Japan, have proposed new targets but not yet communicated them to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Some of the updates are significantly more ambitious. For instance, the European Union has raised its target from ‘at least per cent’ to ‘at least per cent’. Britain has pledged to cut its emissions by at least per cent by and per cent by ; and the United States has set a mitigation target of - per cent by the end of this decade.

But the gap between the new targets and what is needed to be consistent with . C remains huge: Climate Action Tracker estimates the NDC updates only go per cent of the way at most.

It is crucial that governments improve their mitigation pledges. The parties or so that are yet to submit NDCs need to do so, while countries that have communicated unambitious targets – like Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, and Russia – should revisit their offers. The G countries, which account for per cent of global emissions, have particularly important roles to play.

Should the pledges made by the time of COP not be strong enough to close to gap to . C, governments need to agree on a strategy to raise ambitions in the early s. This could include a statement calling on governments to revisit NDCs earlier

Previous page: A farm worker in Kaumba, Zambia, looks up at an ominous sky. The farm he works for is owned by Linah and Godfrey Hapaka, who are taking part in a World Food Programme project to ease the adoption of climate-smart agriculture following severe droughts

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Above: A man stands on the beach watching a wild fire engulf trees. Scores of Greek residents were forced to leave their homes as flames raged across a nature reserve near Mount Geraneia in May 2021

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